The Boise Market Heading Into Winter
Every fall, the Treasure Valley housing market downshifts. Showings slow after school starts, fewer homes come on the market, and the buyers who remain tend to be the serious ones. This year the seasonal slowdown arrived at the same time as a sharp move in mortgage rates, which makes the next few months worth watching closely.
Here is what the latest numbers show for Ada County, and what they mean if you are thinking about buying or selling in Boise this winter.
Ada County single-family homes, September 2026. Source: Boise Regional REALTORS® Market Stat Sheet, data from the Intermountain MLS as of October 8, 2026.
Prices: Up From Last Year, Down From the Summer Peak
The median sales price for single-family homes in Ada County was $575,000 in September, 2.9% higher than a year ago but 3.4% lower than in August. That pattern is typical for fall: prices usually ease off their summer high, and a month-over-month dip is not by itself a sign that values are falling.
Look a little closer and the picture splits in two:
- Resale homes had a median of $561,065, up 2.0% from last year.
- New construction had a median of $622,704, up 10.4% from last year, which leaves new homes about 11% more expensive than resale at the median.
Location matters just as much. Within Ada County, Boise's own median moved down to about $535,000 in September, while Star rose to roughly $627,500. A countywide number can hide very different local trends, which is exactly why we look at the market neighborhood by neighborhood and ZIP code by ZIP code.
Sales: The Strongest September Since 2021
Ada County closed 854 single-family sales in September. That is down from 955 in August, as you would expect in the fall, but 8.5% higher than last September and the best September for sales since 2021. Resale homes led the way, with sales up 18.2% from a year ago.
The forward-looking number is softer. Pending sales, homes that are under contract but have not closed yet, fell to 1,140. That is nearly identical to a year ago, but it is the fifth straight monthly decline since the spring peak. New construction makes up about 57% of what is currently under contract.
Inventory: Still Tight, and Increasingly New Construction
There were 2,006 single-family homes for sale in Ada County in September, 8.5% fewer than a year ago. That works out to about 2.4 months of supply. Boise Regional REALTORS® considers 4 to 6 months a balanced market, so by that measure Ada County is still a seller's market.
The bigger shift is what is for sale. Resale inventory dropped 16.2% from last year to 955 homes, while new construction held steady at 1,051 homes. For the first time in a while, new builds make up more than half of the available supply. Buyers who want an established neighborhood, a mature lot, or a specific school area have fewer choices than the headline inventory number suggests.
Homes are also taking a little longer to sell. Average days on market rose to 39 in September from 37 in August, though that is still about five days faster than a year ago.
Mortgage Rates: The Wild Card for Winter
Most of September's closings were locked in before rates moved. In late September, the average 30-year fixed rate in Freddie Mac's weekly survey climbed above 7% for the first time since January 2025. It reached 7.40% in early October and was 7.32% as of October 22, compared with about 6.19% at this time last year.
To put that in practical terms: on a $575,000 home with 20% down, the monthly principal and interest payment is about $3,160 at 7.32%, compared with about $2,814 at 6.19%. That is roughly $346 more per month for the same house.
Because rate changes show up in closed sales a month or two later, October and November will tell us more about how buyers are responding. Rates move weekly, and nobody can promise where they will go next, so we would not plan a move around a rate forecast.
What This Means for Sellers
- Winter buyers are serious buyers. Fewer people shop in November and December, but the ones who do often have a deadline, such as a job relocation or a lease ending.
- You may face less competition. Resale inventory is down sharply from last year, so a well-prepared resale home can stand out, especially against new construction priced about 11% higher at the median.
- Pricing is everything. With higher rates, buyers are more payment-sensitive. Homes priced right from day one avoid the price cuts and longer market times that come from testing a high number.
- Presentation still matters in the off-season. Good lighting, a warm interior and clear walkways go a long way in shorter, darker days. Our Boise Home Seller's Guide walks through preparing, pricing and marketing step by step.
Curious what your home would sell for today? Start with an instant home value estimate, then talk with us about what online estimates can miss.
What This Means for Buyers
- More time, less pressure. Days on market are creeping up and pending sales are cooling, which can mean more time to decide and more room to negotiate on terms such as repairs or closing costs.
- Get your financing settled first. With rates around 7%, a solid pre-approval and a clear monthly budget matter more than ever. Ask your lender how rate locks and buydowns work.
- Look at both resale and new construction. New homes now make up more than half of what is for sale. It is worth asking builders what incentives they are offering, and comparing that against the lower median price of resale homes.
- Do not count on a big price drop. With only 2.4 months of supply, prices have held up well. Waiting for a dramatic discount may simply mean fewer homes to choose from in spring.
Our Boise Home Buyer's Guide covers neighborhoods, ownership costs and the buying process, and you can search every home for sale in the Treasure Valley on our site.
The Bottom Line
The Boise market is cooling for the season, not collapsing. Prices are modestly higher than a year ago, sales are ahead of last year, and inventory remains tight. Higher mortgage rates are the variable to watch through the winter, and the effect will look different from one neighborhood and price range to the next.
If you would like a personalized market update for your neighborhood, or want to talk through whether buying or selling this winter makes sense for you, we would be happy to help. Contact Templeton Real Estate Group.
Call or Text: 208.473.2203
www.templetonrealestategroup.com
Serving Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Nampa, and the greater Treasure Valley
Frequently Asked Questions About the Boise Market This Fall
Are home prices going down in Boise?
Not on a year-over-year basis. The Ada County median sales price was $575,000 in September 2026, up 2.9% from September 2025. Prices did dip 3.4% from August, which is a normal seasonal pattern in the fall. Boise's own median was about $535,000, and trends vary by neighborhood.
Is Boise a buyer's market or a seller's market right now?
By the standard measure, it is still a seller's market. Ada County had about 2.4 months of inventory in September, well below the 4 to 6 months considered balanced. That said, rising days on market and cooling pending sales are giving buyers a little more breathing room than earlier in the year.
Is it a good idea to sell a house in Boise in the winter?
It can be. Fewer homes are listed in winter, so a well-priced home faces less competition, and the buyers who are out tend to be motivated. The trade-off is a smaller pool of buyers, which makes accurate pricing and good presentation especially important.
How are higher mortgage rates affecting Boise buyers?
The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.32% as of October 22, 2026, up from about 6.19% a year earlier. On a $575,000 home with 20% down, that adds roughly $346 a month in principal and interest. Buyers are becoming more payment-focused, which puts more weight on pricing, negotiation and financing strategy.
Is new construction a better deal than a resale home in Boise?
It depends on what you value. In September the median new-construction home in Ada County sold for about 11% more than the median resale home. Builders sometimes offer incentives that offset part of that difference, while resale homes often come with established neighborhoods and mature landscaping. Comparing the full monthly cost of each is the best way to decide.
Sources: Boise Regional REALTORS® September 2026 Market Report (Ada County single-family homes, Intermountain MLS data as of October 8, 2026); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey via FRED. Payment examples are principal and interest only on a 30-year fixed loan and exclude taxes, insurance and HOA dues. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.